China’s acts in East Sea against its 'peaceful rise' theory: pundit Dr. Gerhard Will, who used to work at the Asia group of the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), answered questions on Monday from Tuoi Tre News in an exclusive interview on the latest events in the East Vietnam Sea. More than 10 days ago, you told DW in an interview that China is now starting to backtrack and is not following a totally consistent strategy in the East Vietnam Sea after they realized their latest move has brought Hanoi and Manila closer together. Do you still have that point of view given what has occurred in the past week? Dr. Gerhard Will: China always follows a strategy of “one step ahead and one step back” in the East Vietnam Sea, as it does in other fields. By following this strategy China always provokes discussions in the camp of its opponents about the ultimate aims of Chinese policy and how to deal with China’s policy. At first glance, this policy seems to be inconsistent and contradictory, but so far China’s strategy has been able to prevent ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] to come to a common position, more specifically to prevent it formulating a “Code of Conduct” supported by all ASEAN members. Tactically speaking, this “inconsistent strategy” has some advantages as is shown by ASEAN’s disagreement over the East Vietnam Sea issue. In the long run, China’s aggressiveness in the East Vietnam Sea and its ruthless exploitation of natural resources in Southeast Asia is incompatible with its economic rise. China’s economic rise is indispensably linked to a peaceful environment and economic cooperation on a regional and international level. That’s what I mean by pointing to the “inconsistency” of China’s policy.   It seems that China’s deployment of its oil rig and escort vessels, including warships, to the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of another state is against their “peaceful rise” theory and “peaceful development” later?   Dr. Gerhard Will: The deployment of China’s oil rig accompanied by 80 escort vessels clearly contradicts China’s theory of a “peaceful rise” or “common development”. A mighty and powerful China bullying its neighbors will not be economically successful. Traditional China was economically more or less independent of the outside world. The economic success of modern China is based on economic cooperation, both on a regional and international level. There is an ongoing academic debate in China as to how China should behave toward its neighbors in the south. Some Chinese scholars plead for a more cooperative policy, keeping in mind the needs and anxieties of large parts of the population in these countries. In Myanmar, there is already evidence of some changes in China’s policy to improve its image by building hospitals, schools etc. In the East Vietnam Sea, China acts quite differently, which is not helpful to China’s “peaceful rise”.  Also in a DW interview, Dr. Wu Sichun, president of the National Institute for East Vietnam Sea Studies (NISCSS), said the oil rig is located within China’s EEZ since according to UNCLOS, the Paracel Islands are entitled to 200 nautical miles of EEZ. What are your comments on it? Dr. Gerhard Will: I’m not a lawyer, but as far as I can see, the occupation of the Paracel Islands by China was an unlawful act not recognized by the international community. When China refers to the UNCLOS it also has to recognize the EEZ of Vietnam, since the oil rig is located 120 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast. More than 13 years ago, in December 2000, China proved its willingness to settle these conflicts in a spirit of mutual understanding by concluding the agreement over maritime boundaries and common fishery zones in the Gulf of Tong Kin. This agreement was renewed ten years later. I cannot see any other way to solve the current conflicts. What are your opinions on Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s recent response to questions from AP and Reuters over the current East Vietnam Sea conflict and his remarks at the 23rd World Economic Forum on East Asia in Manila. At the events, Dung said his government is considering various "defense options", including legal action, against China and he warned that instability or conflict in the East Vietnam Sea will have unforeseeable impacts on regional and world economies, and may even reverse the trend of global economic recovery. Dr. Gerhard Will: Along with most European scholars and politicians, I fully agree that instability or even conflict in the East Vietnam Sea would do unforeseeable damage to the economic development in Asia as well as in most other parts of the world. Since China’s economy is based on integration into the world market, China’s economy will suffer especially grave consequences. Vietnam is well advised to consider various “defense options” and it should analyze very carefully which “defense options” are actually at its disposal when it comes to conflict with China. What do you think about the fact that the Philippines sued China to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea? Dr. Gerhard Will: To go to court is a fundamental right in every system based on law. The Philippines “simply” asked the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea for clarification of certain terms and provisions of UNCLOS with regard to the East Vietnam Sea. Vietnam should support this move based on UNCLOS. Whether the Philippines will get what they asked for remains to be seen and is difficult to quantify in terms of percentage. Normally you don’t get 100 percent when you go to court. Nevertheless, every ruling by an international court is a success of the predominance of law over unlawful actions. Thank you! Trung Pham, Tuoitrenews