Vietnam
seeks new tools to beat bad-debt woes, eyes China-style market
A bank transaction is seen in this
photo illustration. Tuoi Tre
With a shabby facade, bars on its
windows and flanked by a hair salon and a knockoff clothing store, the
Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) looks more like a backstreet pawnshop
than a much-heralded bad-debt bank.
This no-frills office with PVC sofas, chintzy 1980s
decor and no elevator houses what's been the central bank's shoestring
saviour for wayward banks and risky borrowers who ran up $20 billion in bad
debt in 2012 and almost brought a promising economy to its knees.
Even as more debts sour at lenders in Southeast Asian
neighbours Thailand and Indonesia and also in China, Vietnam's $295 billion
banking sector has slashed non-performing loans (NPLs) to 2.9 percent of
total loans by September from 17.2 percent in 2012.
VAMC and its 100 staff have, since its July 2013
launch, helped banks get $10 billion in NPLs off their books. In return,
banks have received $8.5 billion in special bonds which they can pledge with
the central bank to obtain liquidity.
"We save anything that can be salvaged, those that
can be profitable over time, we give them time," VAMC chairman Nguyen
Quoc Hung told Reuters. "We handle the most frightening NPLs
first... and those that can be fixed, we find ways to fix them and help
businesses."
The VAMC doesn't actually buy the NPLs but only houses
them and helps banks restructure them or sell them off. The risk thus stays
with the banks, who must fully write off unrecovered debts over time by
making provisions from their annual profits.
How successful VAMC is in disposing of NPLs will
determine banks' profit margins. The key to that is expediting sluggish sales
of the distressed assets, analysts say.
Can Van Luc, economist and adviser to lender BIDV, said
banks are now well-placed to handle debts, but would have to take a hit on
profits.
"Banks have to make a sacrifice," he said.
"They're lucky they aren't bankrupted or recording net losses."
Supportive economy
Vietnam's bad debt fight has been aided by an economy
outperforming much of Asia's, with forecast 6.5 percent growth this year,
driven by strong exports, factory output and consumption, and record foreign
investment, mostly into manufacturing. Firms are being lured by its looming
accession to Pacific and European Union free-trade pacts.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the central bank, has
launched aggressive measures to clean up a fragmented sector of over 40 banks
which was blighted by poor oversight, cross-ownership, frivolous state-sector
borrowing and widespread fraud that saw tycoons and rogue bankers jailed.
Since 2011, mergers and acquisitions have shrunk 15
lenders into seven, while three banks have been taken over by the SBV.
A healthier economy, a property market rebound and
stricter lending have meant fewer loan defaults. Commercial banks have
forecast 2015 average profit growth of 9.7 percent and credit growth at a
four-year high of 17 percent.
The Thomson Reuters index of Vietnam bank shares has
risen 63.2 percent this year, compared to a 7.4 percent fall in the Thomson
Reuters Asia-Pacific Banks Index .
The NPL ratio in Indonesia rose to 2.8 percent in
August from 2.0 percent in April, while Thai banks' quarterly results last
week showed bad debts in the sector climbing, and hitting five-year highs for
two banks.
"We've been strict with lending," said Luu
Trung Thai, vice chairman of Vietnam's Military Bank, which has trimmed NPLs
to 1.8 percent from 2.7 percent nine months ago. "A rebound in real
estate has beefed up asset value, hence increased the ability to retrieve
assets."
Lingering questions
While banks have rid their books of substantial problem
loans, recoveries have been marginal. Only $664 million in NPLs, or 7 percent
of the NPLs managed by VAMC, have been restructured or sold.
"There's still the lingering question of how will
these NPLs ultimately be resolved and for that there's no clear or easy
answer," said Asian Development Bank economist Aaron Batten.
VAMC chairman Hung admits the bad-debt bank is no magic
wand, and says formation of a secondary market for poor-quality assets could
be the long-term solution.
It's a route taken by China, which is seeing appetite
for a $280 billion NPL tide engulfing its banks. Chinese asset management
companies are selling high-risk, high-reward assets on the secondary market
at heavy discounts.
"VAMC really wants to call for foreign capital ...
but it needs adequate mechanisms and legal framework," Hung said. It's
unclear how close Vietnam is to establishing a secondary market.
Without a market to sell assets at discounted prices,
VAMC won't find it easy to offload collateral it holds, the majority of which
is real estate with high book values, analysts said.
"Buyers don't want real estate-backed debts.
Prices right now, without a debt market, are just too high," said Nguyen
The Minh of Viet Capital Securities.
Reuters
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Chủ Nhật, 25 tháng 10, 2015
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