Typhoon calms political storm over South China Sea Although Typhoon Rammasun may bring violent weather conditions, it also may bring an end, or at least some respite, to the dangerous tension and clashes between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea, according to an expert. An Australian expert, Prof. Carl Thayer, spoke to Dan Tri/Dtinews about the issue:   Prof. Carl Thayer Typhoon Rammasun is now heading towards the South China Sea. Will the typhoon have any impact on China's illegally-placed oil rig, HD-981? It's likely that China had the typhoon season in mind when they first announced that the HD-981 oil rig would conduct commercial operations until August 15. China took on a risky position by deploying the huge drilling platform and so many surface ships in one area. Not all of them were designed to withstand a major storm. It is impossible to know the precise trajectory of Typhoon Rammasun or its intensity at the moment. It must cross over the Philippines, which usually causes a typhoon to loose strength. Current estimates place Hong Kong and adjacent waters at risk. The typhoon will bring worsening weather and this will likely have an impact on all ships operating around the oil rig. At a minimum, China will have to reevaluate the risks posed by the typhoon season to their fleet of ships. The coming typhoon season should see the Chinese depart the area. Do you think that China will move the oil rig to other place to avoid this typhoon or withdraw from Vietnam's continental shelf and EEZ? This typhoon, at present, does not appear to pose a direct threat to the oil rig, given the current projections of its course and intensity. These estimates, however, are constantly being updated. The oil rig itself should be able to withstand severe weather. But the smaller Chinese vessels and fishing boats will have to seek shelter. So will the Vietnamese Coast Guard and Fishery Surveillance ships. As the typhoon season approaches can we expect the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, especially the tensions between Vietnam and China, to deescalate? Yes, because when China first announced the deployment of HD-981, they said that it would not end commercial operations until around August 15. This announcement may be read in two ways. Perhaps China did not want to commit itself to permanent deployment during the typhoon season. On the other hand, it could mean that China was signaling deployment of the rig was meant to be temporary. Both Vietnam and China will have to withdraw their ships and vessels in the face of serious storms. This can provide a face-saving way of deescalating the current crisis. China cannot risk having a storm cause damage to a large number of its ships because this would expose China’s lack of concern for the safety of those ships and their crews. Thank you very much! dtinews.vn