Scenarios
for crude oil exports
Economists
have slashed the forecast for oil revenues in the period 2014-2015 as global
oil prices in recent months have plummeted and may continue to fall in the
coming time.
On November 7, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry
of Industry and Trade decided to drastically reduce gasoline prices amid the
gloomy context of the world oil prices. The petrol price reduction is good
news for consumers but declining global crude oil prices have negatively
impacted the nation’s budget revenues.
On the sidelines of the ongoing eighth National
Assembly (NA) session, Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang told a VOV
reporter that the sharp fall in global crude oil prices would affect
"Crude oil prices have dropped steadily even to a
low record in recent years. Recently, the shrinking world oil prices have
forced the price of petroleum products down. In return, it is conducive to
Regarding current oil production costs in
“Vietnam needs to increase crude oil reserves in
a bid to face a continued further drop in gasoline prices in the time ahead ,
ensure energy security and cope with disadvantages in domestic oil
exploration and production.” the Minister noted.
To deal with falling oil prices, according to Minister
Hoang, it is imperative to intensify market research and forecast to adjust
exploitation plans in line with the actual needs.
Economic experts have predicted that a continued fall
in oil prices in the next three months would greatly affect budget revenues,
requiring adjustments in reducing revenue targets for 2014-2015. However,
Minister Hoang said the adjustments have not yet been scrutinized while the
NA is considering the approval of resolutions on socio-economic development
and State budget performance for 2015.
According to an analysis by the Minister, the current
global oil market is becoming unpredictable and complex in the wake of
political unrest between oil exploiting and importing nations and territorial
disputes. All these factors are related to fluctuations in oil prices.
How current political conflicts between countries
in different regions would be, cannot be predicted, resulting in inaccurate
forecasts of trends in the global oil exploitation and consumption.
“What we can do now is to further step up
communications, grasp the situation and paint some scenarios to cope with
negative events to ensure the most effective oil exploitation. This is a
question raised to the Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) and
relevant ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Trade.” Hoang stressed.
The scenarios put forth by the Ministry of Industry and
Trade include: Oil prices could continue to fall as currently; oil prices
could surge gradually and then likely see abrupt increases.
In terms of gasoline price management, Minister Hoang
said adjustments in petrol prices under Decree No 83 became effective as of
November 1, 2014. All related to the adjustment must be considered by the
Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Since early this year, fuel prices have been adjusted 8
times. Total money from discounted amount was higher than that of price
increases. It is too early to give proper assessment of the pros and cons of
Decree No 83 which just recently took effect.
Some new features in the Decree would create more opportunities
for oil and gas enterprises to compete more promptly thus delivering benefit
to consumers. More companies engaging in the petrol retail market would force
businesses to improve customer care services and promote technological
advances in the distribution and sales system thereby providing leverage for
the stronger growth of the petrol market, Hoang said.
VOV
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Thứ Bảy, 8 tháng 11, 2014
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