How Vietnam
Is Putting Other ASEAN Countries on the Map
In the past
20 years, Vietnam
has come out from the ravages of war to become as some prominent observers
have called the "New Asian Tiger". It is emerging as a key economic
and geo-strategic pillar of Southeast Asian stability.
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HCM City. In the past 20 years, Vietnam has
come out from the ravages of war to become as some prominent observers have
called the "New Asian Tiger" – Photo: VNA
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Vietnam's Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, is the chief architect
behind Vietnam's
profound and ongoing transformation. Because of that, he is increasingly
acknowledged as the senior statesman -- or "First Among Equals" --
within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Writing in The Diplomat this week,
Julio S. Amador III and Jeremie P. Credo observed that in dealing with
regional flashpoints, Vietnam
has used both hard and soft power approaches. It has strengthened its
military and non-military presence in disputed waters of the South China Sea. It has chosen to be diplomatically
proactive, internationalizing the issue to gain the support of other
countries. And it has elevated and strengthened bilateral relations to
strategic partnerships.
The prognosis for Vietnam
continues to be very positive. Foreign investment is up, inflation is well
under control, the economy is opening up, bureaucratic inertia is being beat
down, corruption is being tackled, and hundreds of state owned enterprises
are being restructured or put up for sale. All of this is inevitably a boost
to investor confidence.
Vietnam's leadership and trade liberalization is having a
positive effect on the rest of ASEAN countries. The ASEAN region is on the
radar for investors in the hunt for more diversified growth opportunities,
particularly against the backdrop of weak commodity markets and political
instability in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Africa.
Standard Chartered Bank of London recently reported that foreign investment in Vietnam is
growing at one of the highest rates among ASEAN countries. GDP expanded 5.98
percent in 2014, and inflation has stabilized at around 3 percent, a dramatic
improvement from more than 18 percent that threatened Vietnam's
prospects in 2011.
Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization in 2007. This
opened up the country to trade, investment and commerce that the country had
never before experienced. Dung was instrumental in negotiating Vietnam's
entry into the WTO, and his government is today negotiating six free trade
agreements, including with the European Union, the Trans-Pacific Partnership
and the Customs Union.
There's no putting the liberalization
genie back in the bottle. In Hanoi
last week, Dung said, "Trade agreements require us to be more open so
our market must become more dynamic and efficient. We must build a more
transparent legal platform to ensure flexibility and alignment with
international practices in the local market."
Analysts seem to agree. In a
comprehensive analysis published this month, PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast
how the world's economies could look like in 2050. According to PWC, the
world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3 per cent
per year from now to 2050, doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again
by 2050.
This is twenty-first century
"communism" for you -- a paradigm-shifting, mind-bending blend of
unfettered capitalism and loosening state control.
Impatience is sometimes a virtue. It
drives change. But even the remarkable shift in Vietnam isn't fast enough for
some. Dung's challenge remains to finesse a fine balance between the pace of
economic liberalization and institutional reform and political stability.
That careful balancing act is certain to displease critics who are convinced
Dung is going either too fast, or too slow.
The smart money has been steadily and
increasingly betting on the soundness of the Dung government's direction and
leadership. It has lead to economic growth, new prosperity, and political
stability in Vietnam
and the entire region. Dung is no longer someone to watch. He's being
recognized as the indispensable senior statesman in a vital corner of the
world.
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Daniel D. Veniez –
VNN
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