If China joins the TPP, will Vietnam would lose its advantages?
The possibility of China
becoming a member of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement remains
open. Experts say China’s
membership, to some extent, would affect Vietnam.
China
will join TPP, sooner or later
According to Dr. Le Van Sang, former deputy head of the Institute for the
World Economics and Politics Research, the US
has not invited China
to join TPP but does not oppose the country’s membership. Meanwhile, Chinese
press report that Beijing
may consider joining the free trade area.
“Both the US and China remain
inconclusive about Chinese membership. But I think China would join TPP, sooner or
later,” Sang commented.
Analysts have every reason to believe that TPP would be inked soon, which
means China
may not join TPP from the very beginning. However, the door to TPP remains
open for China.
According to Bui Ngoc Son, a renowned analyst, in the past, the US did not want to admit China into
TPP for some reasons. First, the US did not welcome the Chinese
foreign exchange policy. Second, rising China
may overcomE the US
plan to increase its influences in Asia Pacific.
However, though wanting to establish a free trade area with no China, the US
has no reason to oppose the presence of China in TPP.
What will happen if China
joins TPP? The strategy China
has been following for the last years is that it tries to prevent other
countries to benefit in its land.
However, the analysts both affirmed that China, if joining TPP, will have
to change its ways.
What will happen if China
joins TPP?
An economist said that if China
stays outside TPP, it will be put at a disadvantage as TPP members, or China’s rivals, can do business with the US and
benefit from the world’s largest economy. Meanwhile, if China joins
TPP, its products sold among TPP member countries will be exempted from tax.
If China
joins TPP, its great advantages will be fully exploited. If not, it will face
big difficulties because of increasing labor costs.
Meanwhile, the Chinese TPP membership, to other TPP member countries, would
not be good news, because they will have to share benefits with China.
As for Vietnam, the great
benefits it expects from TPP membership would shrink with China’s
presence, because the Vietnamese economy is smaller than Chinese and is quite
similar to Chinese.
The two countries have similar export products and therefore, they compete
with each other. If China
can also enjoy tax preferences like Vietnam, Vietnamese products will
have no more advantages over Chinese.
Dat Viet
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