WB hails Vietnam’s economic prospect
Viet Nam and
the Philippines are among the countries with the strongest growth prospects,
according to the World Bank Global Economic Outlook 2016.
The
Philippines’ growth is projected to firm to 6.4% in 2016 and 6.2% between 2017
and 2018. Meanwhile, Viet Nam’s growth is expected to expand at an average of
6.3% in 2016-2018.
This is
encouraging news against the backdrop that the global economic environment is
expected to remain challenging. Although there signs of a modest pickup in
growth, global trade and commodity prices remain weak.
In East Asia
and Pacific (EAP), growth is estimated to slow to 6.4% in 2015 and decelerate
to 6.3% on average in 2016-2018, reflecting the slowdown in China and a
sluggish recovery in the rest of the region.
Growth is
expected to rise modestly in Indonesia and Malaysia in 2016-2018, and reforms
are implemented to spur investment growth in Indonesia.
Among the
large developing ASEAN economies, growth in Viet Nam and the Philippines will
benefit from rising household incomes caused by low commodity prices, a diversified
and competitive export base (Viet Nam), and investment driven by robust FDI
flows.
The weak
growth in commodity-exporting economies (Indonesia and Malaysia) was expected
while Viet Nam surprised with a stronger-than-expected performance.
EAP is
characterized by large FDI inflows and outflows. Developing EAP accounts for
more than half of all FDI inflows to developing regions. FDI has typically
gone into a wide variety of sectors, including manufacturing (Cambodia,
Indonesia and Viet Nam).
In terms of
remitance, emerging markets are now among the largest source and destination
countries for remittances, accounting for 40% of the global remittance in-
and outflows. Five emerging market and frontier market source countries
(Kuwait, Qatar, Russia, and United Arab Emirates) account for 20% of global
remitance outflows.
Emerging
market and frontier market recipient countries such as Egypt, India, Nigeria,
the Philippines, Pakistan, and Viet Nam account for 28% of global remittance
receipts.
Regarding the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, the agreement could provide a new impetus to
trade, and lift activity, by helping to reduce tariffs and other trade
barriers. By 2030, the TPP could lift member country GDP by an average of
1.1%, with much larger benefits in countries like Viet Nam and Malaysia.
Viet Nam and
Malaysia would be among TPP member countries benefiting most. The largest
gains in GDP are expected for Viet Nam and Malaysia (10% and 8%,
respectively). Both countries would benefit from lower tariffs.
Low- and
middle-income economies often have comparative advantage in labor-and
natural-resource intensive industries. By cutting tariffs for labor-intensive
garments, the TPP thus benefits countries like Viet Nam.
VGP
|
Chủ Nhật, 13 tháng 3, 2016
Đăng ký:
Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét