East Sea: Are artificial islands more dangerous than oil
rigs?
Though it
is slow and difficult to identify, China’s
strategy of building artificial islands in the South China Sea (Bien Dong Sea – East
Sea) is dangerous because of its
strategic value and the ability to change face that benefits China once
the island chain is fully developed .
The
"abrasive" move and China's
long-term attempt
China conducts illegal construction activities
on Gac Ma (Johnson South Reef) of the Truong Sa Archipelago (Spratly Islands)
of Vietnam.
Photo: Armed Forces of the Philippines/BBC.
China’s East
Sea policy has a clear
delineation between short term and long term.
The strategy to maintain a continuous
presence in the undisputed waters to gradually turn them into disputed areas
has been resolutely pursued by Beijing.
The 981 oil rig incident is a typical example. China used this oil rig as a
"mobile sovereignty landmark " to maintain its presence in the
undisputed waters, even in the areas that are completely within the exclusive
economic zone of its neighboring countries.
The objective of turning from
"no dispute" to "dispute", from "theirs" to
"ours", have been implemented in accordance with the motto of the
Chinese people, "What is mine is mine, what's yours, we can
negotiate."
Along with that move, China’s strengthening and expansion of the
construction of artificial islands has shown their long-term strategic calculations
in the East Sea. The 981 oil rig is a pretty risky
move, but it is substantially easier to manage and attract the support of the
international community for a small country like Vietnam. Meanwhile, though it
takes place slowly and is difficult to identify, the artificial island
building strategy is more dangerous.
Another way to evaluate China’s East Sea
strategy is through changes of targets in certain stages. These are
intentional changes. We will see the same thing when considering China's maritime
strategy from 2009 to present. For example, how could China say that the Declaration on the Conduct
of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) - signed in 2002 and the guidelines
for implementing the DOC signed in 2011 – would be the lodestar navigation of
the parties, when the use of force is still a key tool in Beijing's policy.
Currently, what we can see most
clearly in China's steps
are the consistency of the overall goal to increase the ability to control
the entire East
Sea. What is not clear
is the specific objectives and tasks that every single department of China will
perform.
This is considered the main
difficulty, because Vietnam in particular and more broadly, the ASEAN
countries and the international community in general, will find it difficult
to know in detail what the Chinese agencies in charge of the East Sea will do
what, when and where.
Keep calm
Therefore, Vietnam
should not be so focused on predicting the short-term and specific goals of China, but on learning about the nature and
long-term strategy of China.
Vietnam should probably determine the correct perspective and develop
a comprehensive strategy for the East
Sea before going into each small act
of China.
From there, from the overall view, Vietnam can build detailed
objectives and plans for each phase.
This raises the need to focus on
building a long-term and overall strategy to deal with the long-term goal of China. A
sound strategy with clear objectives and specific division of tasks will help
ensure efficient utilization of resources within and outside the country,
thereby creating advantages in the field and on the negotiating table.
Without an overall strategy, Vietnam
will be unable to cope with the inconsistent statements and actions of China.
Luc Minh Tuan - Vu
Thanh Cong, VietNamNet Bridge
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