Japan
inflation seen remaining listless, no respite for Bank of Japan
Japan is expected to report next
week that core consumer prices were unchanged in January from a year earlier,
halting a brief rise in the previous two months, a Reuters poll showed,
adding to doubts about policymakers' ability to reflate the economy.
Sluggish
consumer demand and sliding fuel prices likely kept inflation subdued, while
effects from the yen's weakening in the last few years have fallen off,
analysts said.
The
core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes
volatile fresh food prices, likely registered no change last month after
annual 0.1 percent rises in December and November, according to the poll of
22 analysts.
"Energy
price falls such as gasoline and electricity are the main factor. But there
is also a pause in price gains in foods and daily necessities due to weak
consumer spending," Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central
Bank said in the survey.
Koya
Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, said that core consumer
prices will likely fall in February and continue declining until around June
even if currency and oil markets stay the same.
"Core
CPI is expected to bottom out around summer but it may be difficult to return
to plus territory within this year," he said.
Core
consumer prices in Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data,
likely declined 0.2 percent in February from a year earlier, compared with a
0.1 percent slip in the year to January.
The
inflation data will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Feb. 26 (2330 GMT Feb. 25).
The
Bank of Japan now expects inflation to hit its 2 percent target around the
first half of fiscal 2017.
Japan's
economy contracted by an annualized 1.4 percent in October-December as
private consumption and exports slumped.
While
analysts expect a moderate recovery, stagnant wages, depressed consumer
prices and faltering global growth have raised fresh doubts about Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe's cocktail of stimulus policies aimed at quashing years
of deflation.
Even
the central bank's shock adoption of negative interest rates late last month
has hardly helped turn around business sentiment, as it failed to boost Tokyo
stock prices or weaken the resurgent yen.
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Thứ Sáu, 19 tháng 2, 2016
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