Vietnam’s
fiscal and monetary market stable following Brexit
Britain’s decision to withdrawal from the EU, known as Brexit, has had an impact on the global economy and on Vietnam’s fiscal and monetary market and investment flow. But the latter will be minimal thanks to proper and timely responses.
Vietnam’s stock market lost more
than US$1 billion as Brexit wreaked havoc worldwide. But following a sharp
decline on June 24th, the market recovered.
At
a press conference to review the implementation of fiscal and monetary
missions and the state budget in the first half of this year and announce
targets for the remaining months, the Finance Ministry said Brexit will not
heavily impact the Vietnamese financial market.
Nguyen Mai Phuong, Director in
charge of analysis with brokerage firm VNDirect, said domestic listed
companies will barely be affected.
“The number of securities trading
accounts of foreign investors in Vietnam increased significantly in the first
half of this year due to domestic and foreign investors’ increased trust in
the market. The market is ready for a boom. Vietnam’s securities market is
mainly affected by policies and investor psychology. Trading on June 24th,
2016 declined primarily because of psychological factors”, said Le Duc
Khanh, strategy director for the Maritime Bank Securities Company.
Many Vietnamese economists say
Brexit will not heavily impact the flow of direct investment capital from the
EU and Britain to Vietnam because Britain’s investment in Vietnam remains
modest.
To date, the EU’s registered capital
for Vietnam is about US$100 billion, of which Britain has 266 projects worth
US$3.5 billion.
“In the current situation, investors
will shift their capital to safer markets. Vietnam will likely benefit from
this situation, if it opens its policies and takes full advantage of
integration. Indirect investment capital flows in the stock market may be
affected, but direct investment capital in the real economy will be less
affected”, said Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and
Monetary Advisory Council.
According
to foreign economists, Brexit will not have a great impact on Vietnam’s
economy but will create opportunities for Vietnam’s fiscal and monetary
market and investment attraction.
The Finance Ministry said recently
that Brexit will not negatively affect Vietnam’s public debt.
Vo Huu Hien, Deputy Director of the
Debt Management and External Finance Department, says Brexit has caused the
British pound to depreciate about 8%. The Chinese yuan has also depreciated.
The Japanese yen is still appreciating.
Hien says in the structure of
Vietnam's public debt right now, government debt in Vietnam dong accounts for
about 55%, debt in US$ accounts for 16%, and yen debt about 13%.
“The
State Bank made appropriate exchange rate adjustments after Brexit, so
exchange rate fluctuations have had little impact on public debt. For
example, British pounds are just 2% of the debt structure, but the British
pound depreciated 8%, benefitting Vietnam. Depreciation of the Euro also
benefited Vietnam’s public debt. By contrast, appreciation of the yen
increased Vietnam’s debt. But, in general, Brexit hasn’t had a major impact
on public debt in Vietnam”, said Mr Hien.
VOV5
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Chủ Nhật, 31 tháng 7, 2016
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