Silver linings for Vietnam’s ageing population Vietnam’s population has expanded rapidly over the past 25 years, having grown from 66.2 million in 1990 to 90.5 million in 2014, according to the latest figures of the General Statistics Office (GSO).  This upward trend is forecast to continue for the next several decades, with the population estimated to reach 100 million in 2025 before peaking at around 110 million in 2050, experts at a recent conference in Hanoi said. In the past the main driver of population growth was high birth rates but that has now transitioned to life expectancy. The current expectancy in Vietnam is 73 years of age and that is predicted to rise to 80 by 2050. In 1960, Vietnamese families had an average of 6.4 children, which figure lowered to 3.1 in 1990 and it currently stands at 2. The number of children per family in several southern areas is now actually even lower than 2. The gender balance of children favours males as most Vietnamese families still have a traditional strong preference for males and this tendency has led many to estimate critical shortages of young brides in the offing. Vietnam thus finds itself – for now at least – in a demographic golden age where 25% of the population is aged between 10 and 24 with the median for the entire population hovering around the age of 29. Most notably there are currently roughly seven people of working age for each senior citizen. In a developing and emerging country like Vietnam, senior citizens will face even more challenges in the future than they did in the past and the nation needs a sensible solution before it is too late, experts at the conference stressed. Currently there are about 9 million senior citizens over the age of sixty representing 10% of the population, and it has been forecast that this percentage will jump up by 20% somewhere between the years 2035 to 2038. Despite the increasing number of senior citizens, supporting policies for them are still short-sighted and inadequate many experts opined. “While population aging is taking place in just about every country and region around the globe, Vietnam’s aging rate is one of the fastest anywhere,” said Arthur Arken the Country Director for the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) in Vietnam. Professor of economics Sang-Hyop Lee of the Hawaii University in Manoa in turn echoed Arken’s perspective and said his analysis also shows that the population of Vietnam’s senior citizens is far outpacing the increase in the working age group. In other words, while there currently are roughly seven people of working age for each senior citizen, in the future the number of workers per senior citizen will continue to drop downwards to six and then five and so on if effective remedial action isn’t undertaken. Professor Lee said the aging population poses unheralded challenges to national and regional decision makers regarding socio-economic policy and other issues over the next few decades. The aging population dilemma also affects a vast array of spending decisions on social programs such as education, health care, public sector pensions in addition to having tremendous tax and public debt ramifications, Professor Lee said. Other experts stressed the aging population of the nation’s senior citizens would lead to a number of perplexing issues related to healthcare and welfare that need to be addressed in a timely and well thought out manner. “Vietnam is facing a host of interrelated demographic problems such as an aging population, unbalanced gender, the quality of life, migration, and rapid urbanisation,” said Dinh Van Cuong, vice chairman of the Central Commission for Economic Affairs. Cuong also strongly emphasized he strongly advises against encouraging people to have more children and does not believe that is an appropriate or viable solution to the problem. We can hear the demographic problems knocking on the door said Cuong and its time for the nation to start searching for the silver linings to resolve them. VOV